一 | China and India’s oil, coal and gas purchases pumped some $24 billion in revenue into Russia’s coffers between March and May, nearly doubling the $13 billion the Asian giants spent during the same period in 2021, China Customs and India Trade Ministry data has shown.,The People’s Republic accounted for over 78 percent of the revenue - $18.9 billion. India, for its part, bought $5.1 billion in Russian energy – quintupling purchases it made a year ago by taking advantage of discounts on crude made as Moscow maneuvered to shift supplies away from the European and US markets.,Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), predicted that the Asian giants aren’t likely to stop their Russian energy binge anytime soon amid rising energy prices, and the West’s politicized decision to ban Russian crude oil and coal, and to limit gas imports.,EXCLUSIVE: New Delhi Does Not Support Attempts to Isolate Russia, Says Russian Ambassador to IndiaYesterday, 10:29 GMT,CREA figures indicate that China overtook Germany in the first 100 days after the escalation of the Ukraine crisis in February, but that the European market still accounted for a majority of top ten importer nations during this period.,China was the biggest importer of Russian energy in the first 100 days after the invasion, according to @CREACleanAir, and India's rise this year has been dramatic. Still, Europe as a bloc has made up the bulk of Russia's energy sales https://t.co/O7rTG4iI0p pic.twitter.com/rVuXsPv1nU— Dan Murtaugh (@danmurtaugh) July 6, 2022,Combined with Russian discounts, the possibility of ruble-yuan payments (and a similar ruble-rupee scheme currently being finalized), the BRICS nations have enjoyed a dramatic ramping up of the type of ‘win-win’ cooperation consistently talked about by Chinese officials, with Moscow ‘winning’ new markets, and Beijing and Delhi a cheap and dependable source of energy.,Iran Asks to Join BRICS27 June, 17:19 GMT,Sanctions Rebound,The United States banned the import of most (but not all) Russian energy in March, with the European Union following suit in the months to follow by banning Russian coal and fertilizers (which is an energy-intensive sector), promising to “phase out” Russian oil, and searching for alternatives to Russian natural gas.,While these measures were meant to “punish” Russia for its military operation in Ukraine, their impact so far has been to send already high energy prices and inflation soaring, and sparking fears of a steep recession.,Germany, the European industrial giant accounting for more than a quarter of the EU’s GDP, has been hit hard by the self-inflicted dual calamities of inflation and spiking energy costs. On Sunday, German Trade Union Confederation chairwoman Yasmin Fahimi warned that “entire branches” of the country’s industry, including aluminum, glass and the chemical sectors, are at risk of “collapsing permanently” thanks to the gas shortages. Germany depended on Russia for 40 percent of its gas and a quarter of its oil before the escalation of the Ukraine crisis.,No Plan C: Europe Facing Trouble as Norway's Oil, Gas Production DecliningYesterday, 15:27 GMT,Even the US, where Russian crude oil accounted for just one percent of total consumption in 2021, has been affected by the Biden administration’s energy ban, with gasoline prices setting records and sending shockwaves of price hikes reverberating on all other sectors of the economy dependent on road transport.,US and EU officials have reacted with general indifference to ordinary citizens’ economic distress, with President Biden blaming Russia and calling inflation and the gas price jump “Putin’s price hike,” while in Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has recommended that people simply ‘turn down the thermostat a couple degrees’ to compensate for lost Russian energy. On Monday, EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy Josep Borrell admitted that the transition away from Russian gas and oil is creating “serious difficulties” for members’ economies, but stressed that “this is the price which we must pay to defend our democracies and international law.”。 7月17日，上海黄浦江畔，2026世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议开幕。1100余家企业集中参展亮相，超300款产品全球首发，规模与首发数量均创下历届之最。 同一天，纽约华尔街投资者却慌了。以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数收盘下跌1.5%，创近一个月最差周度表现。费城半导体指数较6月高点回撤20.2%，进入技术性熊市。 上海一场会，美股跌了。华尔街的分析师们争论不休，但有一个名字被反复提及——Kimi K3。 它是月之暗面于大会开幕前夕发布的新一代开源模型，参数规模2.8万亿，当前全球参数体量最大。在编程能力盲测榜单上，它以1679分登顶。 在中国，这是一次技术突破，引爆了用户需求，火到算力紧缺，7月19日晚间月之暗面宣布暂停C端新用户订阅。 而在美国，它却成了恐慌源头。华尔街称之为“Kimi时刻”，对应去年的“DeepSeek时刻”。
二 | 两次冲击，同一个逻辑：当中国开源模型以极低成本逼近甚至超越美国旗舰产品时，过去支撑华尔街万亿美元估值的算力竞赛逻辑，正在被重估。 慌的不止华尔街。
三 | 7月15日，美联储主席凯文·沃什上任后首次赴国会作证，矛头直指中国AI。
四 | 他把中美AI竞争描述为“代理人战争”，将中国定义为“步步紧逼的竞争者”。 从资本市场波动，到政府官员喊话，美国坐不住了。 剥开表象，美国这种恐慌，或源于三重失控。 首当其冲的，是技术霸权的松动。 目前，中国手握全球60%的AI专利。工业和信息化部最新数据显示，今年上半年，规模以上制造业企业AI技术应用普及率超30%，开源大模型全球累计下载量突破100亿次。
五 | 专利数量、产业渗透、用户覆盖，多个指标同步验证，说明这场赶超早已走出实验室层面。正因如此，Siebert Financial首席投资官马克·马莱克直言，“无论中美前沿AI之间曾存在多大差距，现在都已大幅缩小。” 技术差距缩小，改变的是市场逻辑。美国企业在AI基础设施上砸了数万亿美元，如果中国模型提供可行的替代方案，这些投资还值多少？ 高盛合伙人、股票业务负责人Rich Privorotsky警告，算力扩张时代或已走到尽头。 再深一层看，是市场垄断的瓦解。 长期以来，美国通过限制GPU出口、封闭模型、限制访问等单边主义措施，试图固化垄断，使发展中国家沦为“黑箱AI”的被动消费者。 而中国模型不仅技术过硬，更极具性价比，提供了优选项。
六 | 以Kimi K3为例，在多项公开编程及智能体基准测试中，它超越OpenAI和Anthropic旗舰产品，成本却较同类美国顶级模型低约40%。 市场用脚投票。在主流模型聚合平台OpenRouter上，中国大模型周调用量已连续十一周超过美国并稳居全球首位。工业和信息化部数据显示，受全球AI需求推动，上半年，以人民币计价的集成电路、电子元件等产品出口额同比分别增长88.7%、62.6%。 更深层次的恐慌，是规则制定权的旁落。 面对技术变革的十字路口，中美给出的治理方案截然不同。 美国将AI技术泛化为地缘博弈工具，甚至不惜将前沿模型卷入地缘冲突的军事化应用。
七 | 中国则走了另一条路。从提出《全球人工智能治理倡议》到推出《人工智能全球治理行动计划》，从发起“人工智能+”国际合作倡议到实施《人工智能能力建设普惠计划》以及倡议成立世界人工智能合作组织，中国以开放姿态推动全球AI走向合作共享。 正如国家发展改革委创新驱动发展中心主任霍福鹏在接受三里河采访时表示，中国始终是强化全球人工智能治理合作的坚定支持者。 中国在搭桥，美国在拆台；中国强调以人为本，美国高喊利益优先；中国开放共享，美国升级封锁；中国提供机遇清单，美国输出技术霸权。 美国越焦虑，越说明中国这条路走对了。就连美国企业都在用脚投票。
八 | 相关研究显示，80%的美国AI初创公司都在用中国的开源模型做推理和微调。 事实证明，在这场关乎人类未来的技术演进中，抱守小院高墙没有出路，唯有全球加强合作、共享普惠，才能真正赢得下一个时代。 ｜总策划：俞岚 ｜策划：周锐 ｜统筹：王庆凯 程春雨 ｜执笔：左登基 ｜责编：李金磊 ｜校对：黄蕾 ｜“三里河”工作室出品。
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